Econometric Modeling and Forecasting of Vegetable Dynamics in Himachal Pradesh: ARIMA Approach

This study analyzed trends in area, production, productivity, and tomato prices in the Solan market. It forecasts them for the next two years using secondary data (2001–2023 for area and production, 2003–2023 for price). The growth rates of area (2.18 per cent), production (4.95 per cent) and productivity (2.72 per cent) and production growth was primarily due to area expansion, contributing 45.93 per cent to the increase. The instability index suggests low cultivation risk. ARIMA models forecast an increasing trend in all parameters. Tomato prices were found to have a positive growth rate during all the months. Seasonal indices ranged from 0.71 to 1.14 (off-season) and 0.91 to 1.20 (peak season), showing higher off-season variation. ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0) [12] predicted a continued price rise. These findings aided farmers, policymakers and researchers in decision-making.