MODELING IRRATIONAL MANAGERIAL DECISION-MAKING IN THE IT PROJECTS

The problems of irrational managerial decision-making by IT professionals who have moved to managerial positions and the problem of modeling these decisions are studied. It is noted that unpredictability is the main undesirable property of such decisions. The problem to find steps reducing the unpredictability of irrational decisions is being solved. This also required solving the problems of identifying factors specific to IT professionals, modeling decision-making with these factors in mind. Surveys and mapping project practices to known patterns of irrational behavior was all done to identify factors that are specific to irrational decisions by IT professionals. As a result, the history presence, changes in confidence, and the second decision makers emergence are marked as key factors. The other patterns of irrational behavior were nonspecific or predictable. To further investigation, simulations were carried out using visual and computer models. The visual model is an author's development. It bases on a two-dimensional rationality-belief criterion space and shows the history progress leading to an irrational solution. The computer model is an upgraded system of multiagent simulation modeling. It provides irrational behavior simulations in queuing system after upgrade. The simulation result confirmed the significance of the factors found. Also, it demonstrated the system behavior when triggering known risks.The practical recommendations, based on the key factors found and on the modeling results, to reduce or eliminate the unpredictability of irrational managerial decision-making in IT-companies are provided.