PREDICTION OF THE RISK OF CHRONIC TONSILITIS PROGRESS IN PATIENTS OF DIFFERENT SEX USING REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Introduction. Inflammatory diseases of the pharynx occupy a significant place in the practice of otolaryngologists. Chronic tonsillitis, which occupies one of the leading places, deserves special attention.The palatine tonsils take an active part in the formation of local and humoral immunity, so it is not surprising that along with chronic tonsillitis, a number of metatonsillar complications begin to develop, which is a direct indication of tonsillectomy.One of the modern and fairly accurate methods of predicting the risk of progression of various diseases, including chronic tonsillitis, is the construction of a multifactorial regression model, which includes a number of predictors that may be the cause of the progression of the inflammatory process and the development of metatonsillar complications.The aim is to propose a new approach to predicting the risk of progression of chronic tonsillitis in patients of different sexes based on multivariate regression analysis.Material and methods. 100 patients aged 18 to 70, including 51 women and 49 men, diagnosed with chronic tonsillitis were examined.The results. We analyzed and selected 12 probable factors of the occurrence of the disease with a significance level of less than 0.05 for the group of men and women, in order to build a multivariate regression model for predicting the risk of progression of chronic tonsillitis. Histograms of residual deviations are obtained, which are symmetrically distributed, and a normal-probability line is also presented, on which there are no systematic deviations. The given results confirm the statistical hypothesis that the residual deviations correspond to the normal distribution law.The value of the coefficient of determination was calculated, which was 0.929 in the group of men and 0.918 in the group of women, which gives grounds to claim that 92.9% of the factors in the group of men and 91.8% in the group of women, respectively, were taken into account in the model for predicting the risk of progression of chronic tonsillitis and its high reliability and pleasantness in general.Conclusions. The use of this model will make it possible to reduce the number of potential metatonsillar complications and the possibility of timely surgical treatment and prevention of the disease.