Carbon Sequestration Capacity of Key State-Owned Forest Regions from the Perspective of Benchmarking Management

The sustainable management of state-owned forest regions is significant for improving the nationally determined contribution and achieving carbon neutrality. The administrative area of key state-owned forest regions in northeast China and Inner Mongolia, hereafter referred to as forest regions, spans a forested area of 27.16 million hectares and a forest coverage rate of 82.97%. This represents China’s largest state-owned forest resource base, with extensive and concentrated forest areas. However, despite this vast forest coverage, the region’s forest stand density remains below the national and global average, underscoring the need for improved carbon sequestration performance. This study used the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) method to measure the carbon sequestration efficiency of key state-owned forest regions in northeast China and Inner Mongolia. A spatiotemporal Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model (GTWR) was employed to reveal the spatiotemporal non-stationarity of the driving mechanism of carbon sequestration efficiency. Finally, the benchmarking management method was applied to predict the carbon sequestration potential. The results indicated that the carbon sequestration efficiency of forest regions exhibited an overall increasing trend over time, with significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity among forest industry enterprises (forest farms). Specifically, the carbon sequestration efficiency ranked from highest to lowest is as follows: Greater Khingan Forestry Group, Inner Mongolia Forestry Industry Group, Longjiang Forestry Industry Group, Changbai Mountain Forestry Industry Group, Jilin Forestry Industry Group, and Yichun Forestry Industry Group. Furthermore, carbon sequestration efficiency was driven by both natural and socioeconomic factors, but the effects of these factors were spatiotemporally non-stationary. Generally, enterprise output value, labor compensation, tending, and accumulated temperature had positive effects on carbon sequestration efficiency, while capital structure, altitude, and precipitation had negative effects. Finally, our findings revealed that the carbon sequestration potential of forest regions is substantial. If technical efficiency is improved, the carbon sequestration potential of forest regions could expand by 0.86 times the current basis, reaching 31.29 mtCO2 by 2030. These results underscore the importance of respecting the differences and conditionality of forest development paths and promoting the sustainable management of key state-owned forest regions through scientific approaches, which is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality goals.