Spatial–Temporal and Decoupling Effect of Agricultural Carbon Pollution Synergy in Ecologically Fragile Areas

As an important industry in ecologically fragile areas, the synergy of agricultural pollution control and carbon reduction is vital for the balanced development of industries and regional synergy. This paper aims to explore the synergistic result of agricultural pollution control and carbon reduction in ecologically fragile areas so as to clarify the weak links and solve carbon pollution in ecologically fragile areas. Leveraging the 2006–2021 municipal data of ecologically fragile areas, this paper calculates the coupling coordination degree (CCD) of agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural carbon emission in ecologically fragile areas; calculates the decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emissions, pollutants, and gross agricultural output based on the Tapio decoupling index; and quantitatively depicts the synergy of agricultural pollution control and carbon reduction in ecologically fragile areas. From 2006 to 2021, agricultural carbon emissions in ecologically fragile areas depicted a fluctuating and increasing trend. Agricultural non-point source pollution depicted an “inverted U-shaped” growth trend. The emission trends of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural pollutants depict that although agricultural pollutants and carbon emissions are homologous, there is heterogeneity in the trend and change in emissions. The synergistic results of agricultural pollution control and carbon reduction show a fluctuating upward trend in ecologically fragile areas, and the coordination degree of ecologically fragile areas increased from 0.32 to 0.89, indicating that the level of coordinated development between agricultural pollution control and carbon reduction increased significantly. Taking into account the decoupling effect, the decoupling state of agricultural carbon pollution synergistic economic growth in ecologically fragile areas has changed from negative decoupling to strong decoupling to weak decoupling, mainly in the state of strong decoupling, negative decoupling of expansion, and weak decoupling; in addition, the synergistic capacity of agricultural pollution control and carbon reduction needs to be further optimized. Based on the research results, there is some room for improvement in agricultural carbon pollution synergy in ecologically fragile areas, and regions should strengthen regional cooperation.