Large-Scale Monitoring of Potatoes Late Blight Using Multi-Source Time-Series Data and Google Earth Engine

Effective monitoring and management of potato late blight (PLB) is essential for sustainable agriculture. This study describes a methodology to improve PLB identification on a large scale. The method combines unsupervised and supervised machine learning algorithms. To improve the monitoring accuracy of the PLB regression model, the study used the K-Means algorithm in conjunction with morphological operations to identify potato growth areas. Input data consisted of monthly NDVI from Sentinel-2 and VH bands from Sentinel-1 (covering the year 2021). The identification results were validated on 221 field survey samples with an F1 score of 0.95. To monitor disease severity, we compared seven machine learning models: CART decision trees (CART), Gradient Tree Boosting (GTB), Random Forest (RF), single optical data Random Forest Time series model (TS–RF), single radar data Random Forest Time series model (STS–RF), multi-source data Gradient Tree Boosting Time series model (MSTS–GTB), and multi-source data Random Forest Time series model (MSTS–RF). The MSTS–RF model was the best performer, with a validation RMSE of 20.50 and an R² of 0.71. The input data for the MSTS–RF model consisted of spectral indices (NDVI, NDWI, NDBI, etc.), radar features (VH-band and VV-band), texture features, and Sentinel-2 bands synthesized as a monthly time series from May to September 2021. The feature importance analysis highlights key features for disease identification: the NIR band (B8) for Sentinel-2, DVI, SAVI, and the VH band for Sentinel-1. Notably, the blue band data (458–523 nm) were critical during the month of May. These features are related to vegetation health and soil moisture are critical for early detection. This study presents for the first time a large-scale map of PLB distribution in China with an accuracy of 10 m and an RMSE of 26.52. The map provides valuable decision support for agricultural disease management, demonstrating the effectiveness and practical potential of the proposed method for large-scale monitoring.