Exploring Suitable Models for Regional Ecological Development: A Study on Multi‐Scenario Ecological Risk Assessment in Typical Arid Regions

ABSTRACT Global climate change and rapid urban expansion, combined with other natural and human‐induced factors, have worsened land use patterns' sustainability in arid regions, impacting ecological vulnerability and the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal 15. We employ a multi‐scale assessment to quantify the development level of ecological risks in arid regions and establish scenario‐based management mechanisms. Using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios, we integrate a system dynamics model (SD) and a patch‐based land‐use simulation model (PLUS) to project land‐use patterns in Xinjiang, China, under various scenarios. Additionally, employing a PSR (Pressure‐State‐Response) dual‐perspective model, we establish a comprehensive ecological risk assessment system, enabling a quantitative evaluation of ecological risks in Xinjiang, including its northern and southern regions and various administrative districts, over the next three decades. Findings reveal human activities as the primary driver shaping Xinjiang's landscape, with GDP, population, and digital elevation model (DEM) influencing landscape development. Ecological risk in Xinjiang follows a spatial distribution pattern of “high in the south, low in the north; high in the east, low in the west,” with varying risk levels across the region. For northern and southern Xinjiang, the sustainable development (SD) scenario favors ecological restoration in the south, while rapid economic development (RED) aids in addressing landscape fragmentation issues in the north. At the municipal scale, the Karamay and Aksu regions are most suitable for adopting the SD scenario development model, whereas the Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture is not suitable for the RED scenario development model.