Impact of the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030 on the EU wood-based bioeconomy

• Implementation of the EUBDS area protection target would have a limited impact on EU woody biomass harvest levels. • EU wood industry net exports will be impacted by the EUBDS protection targets more extensively than wood harvest. • Decreased EU roundwood harvest will leak into increased harvest in boreal regions. The EU Biodiversity Strategy (EUBDS) for 2030 aims to conserve and restore biodiversity by protecting large areas throughout the European Union. A target of the EUBDS is to protect 30 % of the EU’s land area by 2030, with 10 % being strictly protected (including all primary and old growth forests) and 20 % being managed ‘closer to nature’. Even though this will have a positive impact on biodiversity, it may negatively impact the EU’s wood-based bioeconomy. In this study, we analyze how alternative interpretations and distributions of the EU’s protection targets may affect future woody biomass harvest levels, exports of wood commodities, and the spatial distribution of managed areas under wood demands aligned with SSP2-RCP1.9. Using the model GLOBIOM-Forest, we simulate scenarios representing a variety of interpretations and geographic distributions of the EUBDS targets. The EUBDS targets would have a limited impact on EU harvest levels since the EU can still increase its wood harvest between 21 % and 24 % by 2100. With strict protection of 30 % of the area, the EU harvest level can still be increased by 10 %. Moreover, the most likely scenario (10 %/20 % protection within each MS) will result in increased net exports in the coming decades, but a slight decline after 2050. However, if protection is intended to also represent site productivity or to re-establish a green infrastructure, then EU net exports will also decline before 2050. With the decreased EU roundwood harvest, increased harvest will occur in other biomes and mostly leaking into boreal regions.