A Space Weather Approach for Quasi‐Real‐Time Assessment of Satellite Orbital Decay During Geomagnetic Storms Based on Two‐Line Element Sets

Abstract Due to the scarcity of in situ measurements in the thermosphere, the retrieval of thermospheric mass density primarily relies on model simulations or the inversion of satellite accelerometers and orbital data. Density derived from satellite inversion is more accurate, often reflecting the actual density at the satellite altitude. However, due to the challenges of comprehensive spacecraft information retrieval as well as its accessibility, and the complexity of inversion methods, real‐time density data are generally not immediately available. Atmospheric density from model simulations can introduce errors, particularly exacerbated during geomagnetic storms, posing significant challenges for space missions. Wu et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ja032733 ) proposed a successful novel method to compute density proxy which shows small discrepancies with measured density, proving its reliability in describing actual thermospheric density. In this present paper, historical orbital data from spacecraft are used to obtain an orbital decay factor during non‐storm periods. This factor is then combined with the derived density proxy to propose a novel space weather approach for the quasi‐real‐time assessment of satellite orbital decay during storms. Using the FY‐3G satellite as a case study, computed orbital decay rates are compared with measured values, validating the reliability of this space weather approach.