Managing the decline of coal: pathways to public ownership of the Powder River Basin, Wyoming

Abstract Phasing out fossil fuels is both necessary to address the climate crisis and could also create considerable social, economic, and political upheaval due to the loss of jobs and economic disruption. However, replacing jobs and revenue is only one aspect of advancing a just transition. In this paper, we argue how fossil fuels wind down is also a crucial consideration for just transition. A chaotic, unmanaged decline will make just transition impossible because of the uncertainty and instability caused. We ask: how can a just transition advance for coal regions through managed decline? We argue that a managed fossil fuel phase out is required for a just transition and the most secure way to ensure a managed phase out is through public control of fossil fuel assets. We highlight this argument through a case study of coal mining in the Powder River Basin (PRB) in Wyoming, the largest coal producing region in the US We present modeling showing the difference between a managed and unmanaged decline in the Basin to highlight the disruption of an unmanaged decline. We then present two potential pathways for public ownership for managed decline and conclude with outstanding research questions and thoughts for future research.