A Method for Evaluating Football Player’s Finishing Ability using xG Metrics

This study aimed to propose a new metric to quantitatively evaluate the finishing ability of football players. The scope of the research included all matches (n=228) in the 2024 season of the K League 1, the top division of South Korean professional football, and the participants were all players who attempted at least one shot (n=361). The variables analyzed were goals, shots, conversion rate, expected goals (xG), and goal-scoring efficiency, with all data obtained from the official website of the Korea Professional Football League. Excluding penalty goals, the player with the most goals was Iljutcenko (13 goals), while the player with the most shots was Cesinha (105 shots). Additionally, the player with the highest xG value was Mugosa (xG=9.66). Iljutcenko also recorded the highest goal conversion rate (goals per shot), but the player with the highest goal-to-xG differences was Yang Min-hyuk (6.82). The study confirmed differences between the traditional metric of goal conversion rate and the goal-to-xG differences, which considers the context of the shot situations, in evaluating players' finishing ability. The findings of this study are significant in that they provide a more valid assessment of a player's ability by reflecting the context of matches, in comparison to previous studies.