Climate change linked spatio-temporal drought prediction over Tamil Nadu (India)

Climate change projections suggest an increased risk of extreme events, potentially accelerating the occurrence of droughts in the future. Drought is a recurring climatic phenomenon that significantly affects the social and economic development of agricultural countries. It can occur in many parts of the world, though its characteristics differ from one region to another. The study aims to analyze future drought events in Tamil Nadu to gain insights into their frequency and spatial extent. Dynamical downscaling of the global circulation model (CCSM4) was done by employing the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4.4. The downscaled future rainfall data was used to calculate standardized precipitation index and drought characterization in the future period such as the near century (2010-2039), mid-century (2040–2069) and end of the century (2071-2099) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenario of CMIP5 project. The results of calculated SPI values showed that the drought frequency was higher in the Southwest Monsoon (20%) compared to the Northeast Monsoon in the future. Based on SPI, drought occurrence is expected to increase in the 4.5 scenario (50%) as compared to the 8.5 scenario, drought occurrence is projected to decrease due to an increase in rainfall projected in mid-century. This article paves the way for more accurate drought management strategies, contributing to improved resilience and sustainable development in drought-prone regions.