Impacts of reduced livestock density on European agriculture and the environment

The European Green Deal (EGD) and Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms aim to achieve substantial environmental and climate objectives, requiring changes in agricultural practices. Livestock density limits could be one of the measures to reduce adverse environmental impacts associated with intensive livestock production, particularly nitrogen pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study examines the effects of imposing maximum limits on livestock units (LSU) per hectare of utilized agricultural area (UAA) across the EU. The analysis focuses on both the economic and environmental impacts of livestock density restrictions, with particular emphasis on their influence on production, nitrogen surplus, ammonia emissions, nitrate leaching, and GHG emissions. Using the Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis (CAPRI) model, a detailed agricultural sector model, the study simulates impacts of different livestock density thresholds (2 LSU/ha and 1.4 LSU/ha) at regional and grid levels. The model facilitates an evaluation of the potential changes in production, market prices, trade dynamics, and environmental indicators, providing a comprehensive view of the policy's potential outcomes. Implementing livestock density limits results in reduced EU livestock numbers, particularly affecting the pig sector, with subsequent decreases in production of animal products and increases in market prices. Farming practices shift toward extensification, with environmental benefits including reductions in ammonia emissions, nitrates leaching, and nitrogen surplus. However, a considerable amount of GHG emissions reduction in the EU could be offset by emission leakage to non-EU regions, diminishing the net global environmental benefits. The study's findings offer insights for EU policymakers and agricultural stakeholders into the complexities associated with enforcing livestock density limits. The results underscore the importance of balancing agricultural production with environmental sustainability and highlight the need for comprehensive strategies that account for both local and global environmental impacts. The study suggests that integrated measures are essential to achieving the EGD's ambitious environmental objectives. • Livestock density limits reduce nitrogen surplus especially in hotspot regions. • Highest impacts in EU pig sector, followed by beef, with dairy least affected. • Limits promote extensive farming, reduce ammonia and nitrate, but increase prices. • GHG emission leakage to non-EU regions affects overall environmental benefits.