More pumas (<i>Puma concolor</i>) does not change perceptions: The mismatched response of ranchers to the presence of a top carnivore

Abstract Human‐wildlife conflicts (HWCs) are one of the most critical conservation challenges worldwide. Large carnivores are frequently at the centre of these conflicts because of the perceived and real threats they pose to livestock and human safety. Determining social perceptions and attitudes towards carnivores plays a vital role in shaping conservation policies that ensure the sustainable coexistence of humans and wildlife. We conducted structured interviews with livestock ranchers in the proposed Torres del Paine UNESCO Biosphere Reserve (Chilean Patagonia) in 2011 and 2018. We recorded information regarding their perceptions of puma presence, the potential danger pumas pose to livestock, livestock losses, and the need to control puma populations. We predicted puma distributions in both periods using MaxEnt to determine whether predicted puma presence explained ranchers' perceptions of pumas or any change in their perceptions over the course of the study. Puma distribution models predicted that the puma has expanded across the study area and that the likelihood of puma relative abundance within ranches increased over time. Despite this, ranchers did not change their perceptions of puma abundance or the losses they suffer from puma predation. Neither did they feel an increased need to manage the puma population. Furthermore, ranchers reported an increase in the perception that pumas are a threat to livestock in the second study period, but this perception was not linked to the likelihood of puma presence. We found a mismatch between the actual probability of puma presence and ranchers' perceptions, which remained mostly unchanged, suggesting that there are underlying social factors driving their perceptions about puma –livestock conflict regardless of actual puma presence and the losses they experience. Synthesis and applications . Results show that ranchers' perceptions are at odds with actual patterns of puma distribution. However, the increased perceived risks associated with puma's expansion would likely increase reported HWC. Given that the study area is home to what may be the densest puma population reported, and that some ranches benefit from puma‐related tourism, while others bear the costs of increasing pumas in the region, the socioecological situation may be a conservation conundrum about to boil. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.