Spatio-Temporal evolution and scenario-based optimization of urban ecosystem services supply and Demand: A block-scale study in Xiamen, China

• Block-scale analysis offers a novel perspective for assessing urban ecosystem services (ES). • Application of the GMOP-PLUS model simulates future land-use patterns and ES dynamics. • Significant spatial imbalances in ecosystem service ES supply and demand are identified in Xiamen. • Actionable strategies are proposed to optimize ES provision and improve green space configuration through urban planning. The imbalance between the supply and demand of urban ecosystem services significantly impacts land resource utilization and residents’ quality of life. This study innovatively examines the spatio-temporal evolution of these services at the block scale in Xiamen, China, from 2012 to 2022, addressing a gap in current research that often focuses on larger scales like watersheds. Using multi-source data, six ecosystem services, including water conservation, carbon sequestration, and habitat quality, were assessed, revealing notable deficiencies. The study also employs the GMOP-PLUS model to simulate land use and ecosystem service changes under three scenarios—Natural development (ND), Economic development (ED), and Ecological low-carbon development (EL)—projected to 2027. Results highlight a significant spatial imbalance with a “North Supply, South Demand” pattern, particularly in southern urban areas. While all scenarios show a decline in green space and ecosystem services, the economic growth scenario improves economic benefits, and the ecological conservation scenario enhances low-carbon and ecological services. This research provides novel insights and optimization strategies for urban land use planning, aiming to enhance ecosystem services and support sustainable urban development.