Mapping Social Vulnerability to Nuclear Accidents: a Comparative Framework Using BWM and AHP Methods

Abstract This paper examines neighborhood-scale social vulnerability to nuclear accidents in Turkiye, focusing on identifying the most at-risk areas and demographic groups across several dimensions: demographics, buildings and environment, preparedness, emergency response, and coping capacity. The study has three main objectives: (1) improving the social vulnerability model by emphasizing criteria specific to nuclear accidents, (2) developing an assessment model for identifying vulnerable communities using a worst-case nuclear accident scenario, and (3) helping emergency managers pinpoint community sub-groups most susceptible to reduced resilience. Social vulnerability was assessed using both the Best–Worst Method (BWM) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), with comparisons highlighting slight differences due to their distinct methodologies. The findings reveal significant vulnerability, with many neighborhoods lacking adequate emergency preparedness programs such as public education, access to emergency supplies, and established evacuation routes. Comparing BWM and AHP helps researchers select the most suitable method, while the developed SVI offers a valuable tool for improving nuclear disaster risk management and community resilience.