The 2020 Belarusian Presidential Election Campaign: Crisis Performance as a Pillar of Lukashenka’s Communication Strategy

Abstract Research on Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s communication strategy shows that the ‘performance of crisis’ was a key pillar in his 2020 presidential campaign strategy, with content analysis illuminating populist elements such as tipping points and stigmatisation. The politician actively disseminated the idea of existential threats to sow fear and foster an image of strength, primarily targeting siloviki and incumbents. For the first time, his election campaign predominantly focused on visiting special forces bases and consolidation of the “power vertical”, rather than ordinary campaigning. Herein, several reasons for such a switch are explored, including the electoral majority’s lack of demand for strong leadership. Rather than adapting his communication strategy, Lukashenka consolidated the “power vertical” structure to prevent a schism among the political elite. This division, which resulted in a populist, pro-authoritarian camp and a democratic camp, led to the ongoing political crisis. This article serves as a retrospective overview and analytical lens for the upcoming 2025 presidential election in Belarus.