Lightning declines over shipping lanes following regulation of fuel sulfur emissions

Abstract. Aerosol interactions with clouds represent a significant uncertainty in our understanding of the Earth system. Deep convective clouds may respond to aerosol perturbations in several ways that have proven difficult to elucidate with observations. Here, we leverage the two busiest maritime shipping lanes in the world, which emit aerosol particles and their precursors into an otherwise relatively clean tropical marine boundary layer, to make headway on the influence of aerosol on deep convective clouds. The recent 7-fold change in allowable fuel sulfur by the International Maritime Organization allows us to test the sensitivity of the lightning to changes in ship plume aerosol number-size distributions. We find that, across a range of atmospheric thermodynamic conditions, the previously documented enhancement of lightning over the shipping lanes has fallen by over 40 %. The enhancement is therefore at least partially aerosol-mediated, a conclusion that is supported by observations of droplet number at cloud base, which show a similar decline over the shipping lane. These results have fundamental implications for our understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions, suggesting that deep convective clouds are impacted by the aerosol number distribution in the remote marine environment.