A Commodity Outlook Approach of Cotton in India

The study aimed to analyze the outlook of cotton in India. The study analyzed the data obtained from FAOSTAT and the World Bank for the period 1960-2020. The analytical tools used in the study were simple growth rate, linear trend analysis, Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, and Vector Auto-Regression. The results indicated that net exports exhibited the highest growth rate, closely followed by per capita GDP. A lag length of 5 was selected for the model. Area harvested demonstrated the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value, while net exports displayed the highest MAPE value. The findings showed the importance of risk management strategies to mitigate uncertainties associated with variables such as net exports and ending stocks.