On a preventive assessment of failures and their causes. Case study of the Ulyanovsk Distribution Networks, a branch of Rosseti Volga, PJSC

The relevance of the research topic is due to the need for objectively assessing the technical state of power grids as one of the effective tools used in drafting emergency response measures. The Aim of the paper is to analyse the operational condition of one of the branches of Rosseti Volga, PJSC, the Ulyanovsk Distribution Networks, in the process of transmission of electrical power throughout its business units. Given the task at hand, an objective description of the structure and balance of the company’s power supply network was defined. Methods. As the main methods of research, the author used the general scientific methods of statistical and numerical analysis, the circuit and prediction theory. Excel, MATLAB and proprietary software packages were used as calculation tools. The author analysed emergency situations in the company’s networks over a long period of observation, defined the criteria for assessing failures depending on the amount of undersupplied electrical power. The research analysed the main causes of damage to the examined power networks for the period between 2018 and 2023 and identified their share in the total number of failures for the above period. The occurrence of emergency outages in the short term was preventively assessed given the seasonality that takes into account the possible fluctuation of failures due to the particular combination of climate conditions of the territories where the electrical networks are situated. The calculated data was visualised using Excel and MATLAB. Conclusions. The paper’s findings may be of interest to the management of the Ulyanovsk Distribution Networks as the foundation of a potential set of emergency measures. The article may be also of interest to engineering services of other power grid companies and researchers involved with improving the reliability of power supply.