Risk Assessment of Hydrogen Fuel System Leakage in Ships Based on Noisy-OR Gate Model Bayesian Network

To mitigate the risk of hydrogen leakage in ship fuel systems powered by internal combustion engines, a Bayesian network model was developed to evaluate the risk of hydrogen fuel leakage. In conjunction with the Bow-tie model, fuzzy set theory, and the Noisy-OR Gate model, an in-depth analysis was also conducted to examine both the causal factors and potential consequences of such incidents. The Bayesian network model estimates the likelihood of hydrogen leakage at approximately 4.73 × 10−4 and identifies key risk factors contributing to such events, including improper maintenance procedures, inadequate operational protocols, and insufficient operator training. The Bow-tie model is employed to visualize the causal relationships between risk factors and their potential consequences, providing a clear structure for understanding the events leading to hydrogen leakage. Fuzzy set theory is used to address the uncertainties in expert judgments regarding system parameters, enhancing the robustness of the risk analysis. To mitigate the subjectivity inherent in root node probabilities and conditional probability tables, the Noisy-OR Gate model is introduced, simplifying the determination of conditional probabilities and improving the accuracy of the evaluation. The probabilities of flash or pool fires, jet fires, and vapor cloud explosions following a leakage are calculated as 4.84 × 10−5, 5.15 × 10−5, and 4.89 × 10−7, respectively. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening operator training and enforcing stringent maintenance protocols to mitigate the risks of hydrogen leakage. The model provides a valuable framework for safety evaluation and leakage risk management in hydrogen-powered ship fuel systems.