GLOBAL TRADE AND ECONOMIC PROGRESS NEXUS IN NIGERIA

This study investigated the link between global trade and Nigeria's economic growth from 1986 to 2023, utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for analysis. Results showed that exports have a positive and statistically significant impact on Nigeria’s economic growth in both the short and long term. In contrast, while imports contribute positively to economic growth in the short term, this relationship shifts to a negative impact over the long term. Based on the findings, the study recommended that the government should expand exports beyond oil by fostering sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and services. Investment in infrastructure and workforce development is crucial to enhance competitiveness and reduce reliance on imports, by improving efficiency and strengthening local industry capabilities. Additionally, Nigeria should pursue beneficial trade agreements to boost exports, open new markets, and ensure fair treatment in international trade, thus fostering economic resilience and reducing import dependency.