A Stochastic Approach to Modeling Long-Term Degradation of the Electronic Security Systems as a crucial element of evaluation of Physical Protection Systems (PPS)

This study introduces a stochastic model designed to evaluate the long-term degradation of Electronic Security Systems (ESS) as critical components of Physical Protection Systems (PPS). Recognizing the significant financial investments in security systems and the evolving nature of threats, our model aims to provide a more dynamic assessment of PPS effectiveness over time. Traditional methodologies, such as the Estimated Adversary Sequence Interruption (EASI), often overlook the degradation factor, potentially leading to mismanagement and increased vulnerability. Our model incorporates various stochastic parameters, including aging, adversary knowledge growth, and technological improvements, to simulate the decline in system effectiveness. We present a comprehensive computational framework using Python, demonstrating the model’s application through a case study involving different ESS components with varied ages. The results highlight the necessity for proactive maintenance strategies and dynamic policy-making to sustain PPS effectiveness. This paper underscores the importance of integrating degradation factors into PPS evaluation to enhance security infrastructure management against evolving threats.