Decoupling Factor Analysis for Sustainable Development in China’s Four Municipalities Using the Tapio Model

This study analyzes the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, along with the driving factors of this relationship, for the four municipalities in China from 2005 to 2021, using the Tapio decoupling model and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method for quantitative analysis. The results of the Tapio analysis show that Beijing and Shanghai achieved decoupling in all of the years studied, with 62.5% of the years in Beijing being classified as having strong decoupling, while Shanghai predominantly exhibited weak decoupling, accounting for 62.5% of the years studied. Tianjin displayed more diverse characteristics, with 12.5% and 6.25% of years demonstrating expansive coupling and strong negative decoupling, respectively. In Chongqing, 50% of years were characterized by weak decoupling, while 18.75% were characterized by expansive coupling. The analysis indicates that the reduction in energy intensity plays a significantly greater role in promoting decoupling than other factors, suggesting that reducing energy intensity is a feasible and important path for carbon decoupling. Additionally, reducing carbon intensity and coal resource usage in the secondary industry is a key factor for promoting decoupling, while the expansion of economic and population scales hinders this process. By quantitatively analyzing the mechanisms behind decoupling, this study reveals the challenges posed by economic and population growth in achieving carbon reduction targets. The findings provide a scientific basis for policies promoting low-carbon economic development and offer valuable insights for global efforts to combat climate change.