Developing a quantitative framework for watershed sustainable development: The ecology-water energy food (E-WEF) approach

• This study developed the E-WEF framework from the sustainable development perspective. • A long-term comprehensive assessment of the E-WEF systems in YRB was performed. • The coupled coordination at the system level is higher than at the subsystem level. • Targeted policies based on regional characteristics contribute to E-WEF enhancement. • Socio-economic and food subsystems are essential to the development of E-WEF in YRB. Water, energy, and food are essential for the sustainable development of human society, forming the basis of ecological security. However, achieving sustainability within the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus, while ensuring ecological security, remains a challenge. This study introduced an Ecology-WEF (E-WEF) framework integrated socio-economic development, ecological security and WEF. We assessed the comprehensive evaluation score (CES), coupled coordination degree (CCD) and driving factor of E-WEF system during 2000–2020 and predicted CES during 2021–2030 in Yellow River Basin (YRB). The results indicated: While the WEF system fluctuated, developing E system led to an upward trend in the E-WEF system, with predictions showing a steady rise from 2020 to 2030, outpacing the WEF system. In socio-economic, energy and food subsystems, CES showed the highest in downstream and the lowest in upstream, while in the eco-environmental and water subsystems, the converse was observed. The CCD was higher in downstream, with the system layer exceeding the subsystem layer. From 2000 to 2020, the major influencing factors shifted from agricultural production and energy consumption to environmental protection and resource utilization efficiency. Interaction factors had greater effects than individual factors, with the socio-economic and food subsystems showing a high contribution, respectively. The E-WEF framework provided new insights for achieving ecological security and sustainable development in the region.