Chaos Before Peace: The Impact of Exposure to a Prison Riot on Incarcerated Persons

Abstract Objective Although research has focused on the organizational precursors to prison riots and their situational features, little is known about the consequences of prison riots on incarcerated persons. In the current study, we use a novel application of regression discontinuity (RD) analysis to examine the effects of exposure to a prison riot on prison-related outcomes for incarcerated men. Methods We use administrative records from a state prison system (2010–2019) to construct a panel dataset of over 3600 individuals who served time in a facility where a major riot occurred in 2015. We treat the riot as an exogenous event and use a sharp RD design to assess the effects of riot exposure on recidivism (i.e., return to prison) and on prison misconduct. Identification tests confirm the suitability of the RD design in the context of the riot, thus ruling out threats to validity. Results Our findings show that individuals exposed to the prison riot were 7–12% less likely to return to prison than those unexposed; and that individuals exposed to the riot were less likely to engage in misconduct in the form of property, security, and defiance infractions. Conclusion While our findings suggest that riot exposure can prompt behavioral change, we emphasize that violence prevention and evidence-based programming are the appropriate paths to rehabilitation in correctional settings.