International Market Demand for California Raisins: A Time Series Analysis

This study focuses on the export demand for California-grown raisins from the world's largest importers: Japan, China, Germany, and Canada. It aims to estimate the price cointegration relationship between California's wholesale price and how export demand changes transmit to the local market and impact farm-level economic returns.  It uses local raisin’s quarterly wholesale prices from 2012 to 2024, and the international trading prices from USDA Global Agriculture Trade System (GATS) data sets from the same periods. Our results show that the prices of the last two quarters suggest the upcoming quarter's supply and demand situation in the local market. It reveals that California's local raisins wholesale market is integrated into the world's raisins trading, especially with the large trading partners of Japan, Germany, and Canada. Additionally, the VAR model and the data used in this study do not support a longer-run price cointegration among selected countries and between California's wholesale market and these destination countries.