The Effect of Investments, Mechanization and Fertilizer Use on Agricultural Growth in Türkiye's Agricultural Sector: An Econometric Analysis

This research comprehensively examines the economic factors affecting agricultural growth in Türkiye between 1998 and 2022. The agricultural sector has a strategic importance for economic growth and rural development. In the study, variables affecting agricultural growth such as fixed capital investments, use of agricultural machinery and fertilization are considered and the effects of these factors are analyzed by econometric methods. The data set used in the study is based on annual data covering the years 1998-2022. The stationarity levels of the data are analyzed by Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) unit root tests. VAR model is used to analyze the dynamic relationships of time series, Toda-Yamamoto causality test is used to determine the direction of the effects, impulse-response functions and period decomposition methods are used to evaluate the magnitude and duration of the effects. Diagnostic tests such as normality, autocorrelation and variance tests were used to test the validity of the model. The results of the research show that the impact of fixed capital investments on agricultural growth is significant and that private sector investments have become more determinant in recent years, although public investments were effective in the early years. Modern agricultural practices such as the use of agricultural machinery and nitrogen fertilizers have been found to increase productivity in the short run, but have limited effects in the long run. Despite the declining share of agriculture in GDP, the sector remains critical for economic growth, rural employment and food security.