Designing for complexity and uncertainty – policy instruments for complex environmental issues

This paper explores the difficulties of designing effective policies to address complex environmental policy challenges under conditions of uncertainty. It builds on two bodies of previous research, concerning (1) policymaking under conditions of complexity, uncertainty and controversy (“wicked problems”), and (2) the likely impacts of choosing particular policy instruments – voluntary, mandatory and procedural. These policymaking frames are applied to three Australian policy cases – plastic waste management and recycling; protection of biodiversity through nature-based “offsets;” and enhancing marine water quality to protect coral reefs. These very different policy challenges have shared a similar evolutionary pattern, namely: (1) problem awareness was very slow to develop, as in a “creeping” crisis; (2) governments have initially attempted to influence stakeholder behavior through voluntary measures, such as information, stakeholder meetings, small financial incentives and industry codes of conduct; and (3) the track-record over several decades showed that reliance on voluntary measures to shift behavior produced weak program outcomes. The implication is that more effective solutions would require support for clear outcome targets and enforceable standards, as foundational elements in future policy mixes.