Estimating risk, disease burden, and economic impact of Vibrio vulnificus infection associated with raw oyster consumption in South Korea

• The estimated incidence rate of V. vulnificus infection was 0.18/100,000 individuals. • About 92 of 51.8 million Koreans are at risk of V. vulnificus infection annually. • The estimated annual economic burden of V. vulnificus infection was $427,469 million. • V. vulnificus infection can reduce about 2.07 healthy years/100,000 South Koreans. This study utilized the quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model to evaluate the risk of illness associated with the ingestion of Vibrio vulnificus through raw oyster consumption in South Korea. The economic and disease burdens of V. vulnificus infection on the South Korean population were assessed using cost of illness (COI) analysis and quantification of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Predictive models were developed using Monte Carlo simulation and probability modeling to describe the seasonal growth kinetics of V. vulnificus in oysters from harvest to consumption along the supply chain. The modeling results and oyster consumption data for South Koreans were applied to the beta-Poisson dose-response model to estimate an annual probability of illness (P ill ). The estimated annual number of cases was 92 ± 23, with an incidence rate of 0.18 ± 0.04 per 100,000 individuals. Significant seasonal impact was observed in the P ill per meal, with summer risk (7.03 × 10 -7 ) substantially exceeding winter risk (3.21 × 10 -8 ). COI analysis and DALYs quantification indicate that V. vulnificus infection contributes to an annual economic burden of $427,469 and a loss of 2.08 healthy life years per 100,000 people in South Korea. Enhancing post-harvest handling, consumer education, and sustained surveillance is recommended to effectively mitigate the risk of V. vulnificus infection in South Korea and potentially in other regions with similar seafood consumption practices.