Carbon quota allocation and emission reduction responsibility sharing at provincial level in China from transport industry

The transport industry has high energy consumption and carbon emissions, which poses a big challenge for China to realize the promise made at the Paris Climate Conference and carbon peaking targets. Reasonable allocation of carbon emissions from transport industry is imminent, which is very important for provinces to clarify their emission limits and achieve carbon reduction targets. This paper first establishes the STIRPAT-Ridge regression prediction model of transport industry, and discusses the completion of carbon peaking and carbon intensity reduction target with scenario analysis. Then, a carbon quota allocation model with the principles of equity, efficiency and green is built, and combined with the ZSG-DEA model to optimizes the provincial carbon quota allocation. The results shows that only the technology emission reduction scenario and comprehensive development scenario can achieve 65% carbon intensity reduction targets. The initial allocation efficiency show results that only Beijing, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Yunnan provinces have an efficiency of 1, while other provinces have low initial carbon quotas allocation efficiency. After the fifth iteration, the efficiency of almost all provinces is 1, and the redistribution efficiency of carbon quotas in each province obtains the best. The results of carbon quota allocation show that Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Beijing and Henan get higher carbon emission quotas, mainly in the eastern region.Two-thirds of the provinces, especially Liaoning, Shanghai and Hunan, fell short of the goal of cutting carbon intensity by 65% in 2030, and needed to bear some responsibilities for reducing emission. Yunnan, Liaoning, Heilongjiang are facing greater carbon reduction pressure, while Ningxia, Qinghai and Hainan are under less pressure. In addition, for provinces with high emissions-high pressure, special attention should be paid to the dual drive of energy efficiency improvement and technology emission reduction. This study can contribute to the low-carbon transformation of the transport industry, and provide decision-making reference for China to realize its commitments at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference and cope with climate change.