Study on agricultural carbon emission efficiency calculation and driving path of grain production department in China

Agriculture plays a pivotal role in China’s environment, economy, and society, standing as a pillar in the country’s shifts toward lower carbon emissions. This is important, especially in food production, where sustainable prac-tices protect the environment and ensure food security and quality. Therefore, understanding the factors affect-ing carbon emission efficiency is highly practical for speeding up emission reductions and improving efficiency throughout the entire food supply chain. This study uses the Super Slacks Based Measure (SBM) model to evalu-ate the efficiency of carbon emissions in 30 provinces (including municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 2013 to 2022, emphasizing the food production sector. Through the Technology Organization Environment (TOE) framework, an integrated analysis is crafted to explore ways to enhance carbon emission efficiency. The set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) method is applied to examine these pathways from a perspective offering unique insights tailored to the food production field. The findings reveal that agricultural carbon emis-sion efficiency surpasses the average in half of the provinces studied, yet notable discrepancies exist among them. In the eastern regions, efficiency values tend to be higher compared to the western areas, impacting the sustain-ability of regional food production. The research identifies four patterns that drive agricultural carbon emission efficiency: those led by technical conditions, attention structure synergy, agriculture support structure synergy, and overall development synergy. Enhancing efficiency involves factors such as adopting technologies promoting digital economy development, investing in agriculture financially, embracing eco-friendly agricultural practices, and optimizing the agricultural industrial structure. These aspects have implications for food science and the broader agricultural sector. Additionally, the study uncovers a substitution relationship between technological and environmental conditions that influence efficiency. These findings provide an overview of the pathways that enhance provincial agricultural carbon emission efficiency from an interactive perspective. This study is helpful to expand the understanding of the TOE framework, enrich the research results in the field of low-carbon agri-culture, provide insights for provinces in the stage of efficiency improvement, and provide theoretical support for carbon emission reduction in grain production in various provinces. The research aims to guide policymakers, food scientists, and agricultural stakeholders in China toward optimizing carbon efficiency in food production systems to support global climate change mitigation efforts while ensuring food supply.