Predicting the determinants of consumer’s intention to boycott surrogate Israeli products – evidence on nonlinear relationships from Morocco

Purpose This study aims to investigate the determinants of Moroccan consumers’ intentions to boycott products associated with Israel amidst the prolonged Palestinian–Israeli conflict. As global interest in ethical consumption and consumer activism intensifies, this research explores how sociopolitical sentiments influence boycott behaviors in emerging markets. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a quantitative methodology based on a novel technique that comprised a two-phase analysis including structural equation modeling (SEM) and machine learning through artificial neural network (ANN). SEM was used to analyze direct and indirect relationships among variables, offering insights into both causality and model validity. ANN complemented SEM by examining nonlinear relationships, using multilayer perceptron analysis and cross-validation to assess predictive accuracy and reveal the relative importance of each predictor. An online survey, based on a seven-point Likert scale, gathered data from 234 Moroccan consumers, surpassing the required sample size for robust analysis. Findings The results reveal that consumer animosity, positive and negative anticipated emotions, subjective norms and social media influence boycott intentions significantly, whereas negative or positive anticipated emotion do not affect the intention to boycott surrogate Israeli products. This study highlights that consumers’ perceived responsibility and emotional responses to geopolitical issues shape their purchase behaviors, underlining ethical consumption’s complexity in Morocco. Research limitations/implications This study primarily examines Arab and Muslim participants, potentially limiting its generalizability. Future research should include non-Muslim and non-Arab individuals who oppose Israel, to strengthen the findings on surrogate product consumption and boycott behavior, enhancing the robustness and broader applicability of the conclusions. Practical implications This study offers two key practical implications. First, it provides nongovernmental organizations and advocacy groups with insights on leveraging consumer boycotts as effective tools for promoting ethical and social causes. Second, it highlights how MSMEs can gain a competitive advantage by aligning their branding with cultural and ethical values, fostering consumer loyalty in politically engaged markets. Originality/value Positioned at the crossroads of Africa and the Middle East, Morocco is not immune to the conflict’s impact on marketing and consumer behavior. This research offers a novel approach to understanding Moroccan consumers’ intention to boycott Israeli surrogate products. This study contributes to global consumer behavior understanding and highlights sociopolitical implications of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict.