Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis in GIS to predict suitability for recreational green space interventions in Kigali City, Rwanda

Abstract Green spaces improve societal well-being, foster connectivity to nature, and attenuate climate change. Despite Rwanda and other developing countries increasingly pursuing green economies, urban greening efforts still need multi-conceptual models that comprehensively address socio-economic and environmental requirements. This study employs a GIS-based Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) constructed on an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to predict green space intervention suitability across Kigali City, Rwanda. The study was based on nine factors namely: population density, slope, land cover types, proximity to roads, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), proximity to existing green spaces, proximity to water bodies, nitrogen dioxide concentrations, and elevation, to be used as criteria for the MCA. The findings indicate that 2.49% (1,816.19 ha) of Kigali City is highly suitable while 12% (8,744.68 ha) is unsuitable for green space interventions. Population density emerged as the most influential factor, with the city’s densely populated west-central areas exhibiting high suitability for green space initiatives. Strategically placing green spaces near population centres enhances their contribution to societal well-being, reduces transport costs, and encourages frequent use. By integrating GIS-based MCA with AHP, this study offers a robust framework for addressing green space accessibility challenges in Kigali, while simultaneously advancing climate-resilient urban development. We recommend planners prioritise Kigali City’s west-central areas for green space interventions, researchers leverage the GIS-MCA-AHP methodology for climate-resilient urban studies, and practitioners replicate this framework to advance socio-economically inclusive greening strategies.