Modeling the volatile organic compounds emissions from asphalt pavement construction and assessing health risks for workers with uncertainty analysis

Asphalt mixture, a key raw material in road construction, releases massive volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during pavement construction, posing risks to human health and contributing to atmospheric pollution. Numerous studies have investigated the health impacts of VOCs using health risk assessment model with limited consideration of uncertainty factors in field conditions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the occupational health risks associated with VOC exposure for construction workers considering spatial and behavioral uncertainty factors. The proposed model is based on a validated Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation approach and integrates two spatial and behavioral uncertainty factors: variability in working areas and differences in working postures. The findings demonstrate that the validated CFD model demonstrated acceptable accuracy in simulating real-time VOC concentrations (maximum NMSE =0.289<6, maximum |FB|=0.394<0.67). Both carcinogenic and non- carcinogenic risks exhibited significant variability across roles, driven by proximity to emission sources and behavioral factors. Certain raker faces the highest carcinogenic risk (mean = 3.19 × 10⁻⁴) under benzene exposure, exceeding the threshold for "definite carcinogenic risk". Non-carcinogenic risks surpassed the safety threshold for certain raker and screed men under benzene and m-xylene exposure. Sensitivity analysis identified exposure length as the most influential factor for both carcinogenic risk (0.83–0.84) and non-carcinogenic risk (0.97–0.98). Modifiable factors—working posture and working area—also demonstrated measurable sensitivity, providing actionable levers for risk mitigation in high-vulnerability roles. The findings underscore the importance of role-specific interventions to mitigate health risks, enabling data-driven interventions to safeguard construction workers in VOC-intensive environments. • A health risk level simulation model was developed in conjunction with computational fluid dynamics. • Incorporation of working posture and working area as uncertainty factors in occupational health risk assessment model. • Quantification and characterization of health risk levels under different VOCs species is achieved.