Can U.S. Sanctions Truly Hinder the Rise of China’s Semiconductor Industry? An Analysis from the Perspective of “Creative Insecurity”

Abstract The aim of this study is to explore the relationship between external threats and creativity in China’s technology industry through the lens of U.S.–China semiconductor industry frictions. Since the 2010s, the U.S. has progressively intensified its pressure on China’s semiconductor industry, leading to fierce tensions between the two nations. Both countries view the semiconductor industry as critical to national security, and their disputes over semiconductors are framed as security issues. This study integrates the theory of “Creative Insecurity” and optimizes it with empirical adjustments according to the characteristics of the semiconductor industry. By employing a mixed-methods approach that combines qualitative and quantitative analysis, the study examines U.S. sanctions policies during the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations, along with China’s policy responses and the development of its semiconductor industry. The study establishes correlations between the intensity of external threats from the U.S. and China’s semiconductor-related metrics, such as technological patent levels, process advancement, and self-sufficiency. The findings conclude that U.S. sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry are positively correlated with its development. Sanctions from the United States may stimulate the growth of China’s independent semiconductor industry.