National Transfer Accounts and Implications for Social Sector Policies in the Republic of Serbia

This paper presents the first comprehensive analysis of the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) findings for Serbia, based on the data from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) for 2018. Using the NTA methodology, which integrates survey and administrative data to examine economic flows across age groups, the study highlights critical implications for social sector policy. The analysis employs a comparative approach, contrasting Serbia’s findings with those of EU25 countries using the data from the AGENTA database for 2010. In Serbia, labor income grows later in the life cycle and begins to decline relatively early. The age profile of public and private consumption does not suggest complementarity, nor does it support life-cycle consumption smoothing. Notably, the Serbian context reveals limited “socialization” of spending on early childhood education and elderly healthcare. Serbia’s life-cycle deficit disappears at age 27 and re-emerges at 58, shortening the surplus period to 31 years— noticeably shorter than EU averages. Furthermore, the aggregate deficit for dependent age groups constitutes 58.5% of labor income, significantly exceeding EU25 levels. These findings underscore the need for targeted policy reforms in early childhood education, long-term eldercare, and the pension system to address Serbia’s demographic and economic challenges effectively.