Manifold-valued models for analysis of EEG time series data

EEG (electroencephalogram) records brain electrical activity and is a vital clinical tool in the diagnosis and treatment of epilepsy. Time series of covariance matrices between EEG channels for patients suffering from epilepsy, obtained from an open-source dataset, are analysed. The aim is two-fold: to develop a model with interpretable parameters for different possible modes of EEG dynamics, and to explore the extent to which modelling results are affected by the choice of geometry imposed on the space of covariance matrices. The space of full-rank covariance matrices of fixed dimension forms a smooth manifold, and any statistical analysis inherently depends on the choice of metric or Riemannian structure on this manifold. The model specifies a distribution for the tangent direction vector at any time point, combining an autoregressive term, a mean reverting term and a form of Gaussian noise. Parameter inference is performed by maximum likelihood estimation, and we compare modelling results obtained using the standard Euclidean geometry and the affine invariant geometry on covariance matrices. The findings reveal distinct dynamics between epileptic seizures and interictal periods (between seizures), with interictal series characterized by strong mean reversion and absence of autoregression, while seizures exhibit significant autoregressive components with weaker mean reversion. The fitted models are also used to measure seizure dissimilarity within and between patients.