Evaluating Three Modelling Frameworks for Assessing Changes in Fin Whale Distribution in the Mediterranean Sea

Understanding the habitat of highly migratory species is aided by using species distribution models to identify species-habitat relationships and to inform conservation and management plans. While Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are commonly used in ecology, and particularly the habitat modeling of marine mammals, there remains a debate between modeling habitat (presence/absence) versus density (# individuals). Our study assesses the performance and predictive capabilities of GAMs compared to boosted regression trees (BRTs) for modeling both fin whale density and habitat suitability alongside Hurdle Models treating presence/absence and density as a two-stage process to address the challenge of zero-inflated data. Fin whale data were collected from 2008 to 2022 along fixed transects crossing the NW Mediterranean Sea during the summer period. Data were analyzed using traditional line transect methodology, obtaining the Effective Area monitored. Based on existing literature, we select various covariates, either static in nature, such as bathymetry and slope, or variable in time, for example, SST, MLD, Chl concentration, EKE, and FSLE. We compared both the explanatory power and predictive skill of the different modeling techniques. Our results show that all models performed well in distinguishing presences and absences but, while density and presence patterns for the fin whale were similar, their dependencies on environmental factors can vary depending on the chosen model. Bathymetry was the most important variable in all models, followed by SST and the chlorophyll recorded 2 months before the sighting. This study underscores the role SDMs can play in marine mammal conservation efforts and emphasizes the importance of selecting appropriate modeling techniques. It also quantifies the relationship between environmental variables and fin whale distribution in an understudied area, providing a solid foundation for informed decision making and spatial management.