Application and analysis of bass diffusion model in power supply forecasting

With the rapid development of the global economy, the continuous growth of electricity demand has become an important challenge facing all countries. In China in particular, the supply of electricity is not only the cornerstone of economic development, but also a key factor driving social life and technological progress. For this reason, it is particularly important to accurately predict the changing trend of electricity supply. This study uses the Bass diffusion model to predict China's electricity supply, and combines historical data analysis from 1970 to 2020 to explore the impact of multiple factors such as urbanisation, economic development and technological innovation on electricity supply. The results show that the growth of electricity supply exhibits an S-shaped curve, and it is predicted that the growth of electricity supply will continue in the future, but the annual growth rate will tend to stabilise. In addition, the parameter analysis of the model reveals the important role of market potential, innovation and imitation in the expansion of electricity supply. This study not only provides theoretical support for policy formulation in the power industry, but also provides new ideas and a framework for achieving sustainable development goals.