Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of Vegetation Cover Dynamics and Its Drivers in Coastal Regions: Evidence from a Typical Coastal Province in China

Studying the spatiotemporal trends and influencing factors of vegetation coverage is essential for assessing ecological quality and monitoring regional ecosystem dynamics. The existing research on vegetation coverage variations and their driving factors predominantly focused on inland ecologically vulnerable regions, while coastal areas received relatively little attention. However, coastal regions, with their unique geographical, ecological, and anthropogenic activity characteristics, may exhibit distinct vegetation distribution patterns and driving mechanisms. To address this research gap, we selected Shandong Province (SDP), a representative coastal province in China with significant natural and socioeconomic heterogeneity, as our study area. To investigate the coastal–inland differentiation of vegetation dynamics and its underlying mechanisms, SDP was stratified into four geographic sub-regions: coastal, eastern, central, and western. Fractional vegetation cover (FVC) derived from MOD13A3 v061 NDVI data served as the key indicator, integrated with multi-source datasets (2000–2023) encompassing climatic, topographic, and socioeconomic variables. We analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation coverage and their dominant driving factors across these geographic sub-regions. The results indicated that (1) the FVC in SDP displayed a complex spatiotemporal heterogeneity, with a notable coastal–inland gradient where FVC decreased from the inland towards the coast. (2) The influence of various factors on FVC significantly varied across the sub-regions, with socioeconomic factors dominating vegetation dynamics. However, socioeconomic factors displayed an east–west polarity, i.e., their explanatory power intensified westward while resurging in coastal zones. (3) The intricate interaction of multiple factors significantly influenced the spatial differentiation of FVC, particularly dual-factor synergies where interactions between socioeconomic and other factors were crucial in determining vegetation coverage. Notably, the coastal zone exhibited a high sensitivity to socioeconomic drivers, highlighting the exceptional sensitivity of coastal ecosystems to human activities. This study provides insights into the variations in vegetation coverage across different geographical zones in coastal regions, as well as the interactions between socioeconomic and natural factors. These findings can help understand the challenges faced in protecting coastal vegetation, facilitating deeper insight into ecosystems responses and enabling the formulation of effective and tailored ecological strategies to promote sustainable development in coastal areas.