Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Suitable Ecological Niches of the Endemic and Endangered Conifer Pinus bungeana in China

As climate change continues to alter species distributions, Pinus bungeana, an endangered conifer of significant ecological and ornamental value, faces heightened vulnerability, underscoring the critical need to understand and predict its future habitat shifts. Here, we used 83 effective geographic distribution records, along with climate, topography, soil, and drought indices, to simulate the potential distribution of suitable ecological niches for P. bungeana under current conditions and across three future time periods (2040–2060, 2060–2080, and 2080–2100) under two shared socioeconomic pathways: SSP126 (low emissions) and SSP585 (high emissions), using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The results show that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for all simulations exceeded 0.973, indicating high predictive accuracy. Soil moisture, the minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature seasonality, isothermality, the precipitation of the wettest quarter, and altitude were identified as key environmental factors limiting the distribution of P. bungeana, with soil moisture and the minimum temperature of the coldest month being the most important factors. Under the current climatic conditions, the potentially suitable ecological niches for P. bungeana were primarily located in Shaanxi Province, southern Shanxi Province, southeastern Gansu Province, northeastern Sichuan Province, Henan Province, and northwestern Hubei Province, covering approximately 75.59 × 104 km2. However, under the future climate scenarios, highly suitable areas were projected to contract, with the rate of decline varying significantly between scenarios. Despite this, the total area of potentially suitable ecological niches was predicted to expand in the future periods. Additionally, a pronounced eastward shift in P. bungeana’s distribution was projected, especially under the high-emission SSP585 scenario. These findings provide insights into the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of P. bungeana, and they offer valuable guidance for its conservation strategies and habitat management in the context of climate change.