The good, the bad, and the ugly: What Donald Trump’s return to the White House means for US strategic competition with Russia and China

Abstract How does Donald Trump’s return to the White House affect America’s strategic competition with Russia and China over the future of the global order? In order to assess the prospects of US-Russia and US-China rivalry, the essay begins with an analysis of the first Trump administration’s political legacy, followed by a close look at the track record of the Joe Biden administration and the current state of the international system in early 2025. Based on those findings, the paper sketches expectations for the second presidency of Donald Trump.