Examining the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Land Use Conflicts from an Ecological Security Perspective: A Case Study of Tianshui City, China

Land use conflicts represent an increasing challenge to sustainable development, particularly in regions undergoing rapid urbanization. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use conflicts and their ecological implications in Tianshui City from 1980 to 2020. The main objectives were to identify patterns of spatial heterogeneity, explore the driving factors behind these conflicts, and analyze their relationship with the ecological risks. The results indicate the following findings. In terms of spatiotemporal heterogeneity, early land use changes were primarily driven by structural factors, such as topography and climate, with a Nugget/Still ratio of <0.30 observed from 1980 to 2000. After 2000, however, stochastic factors, including an average annual urbanization rate increase of 5.2% and a GDP growth rate of 9.1%, emerged as the dominant drivers, as reflected in a Nugget/Still ratio > 0.36. Regarding conflict intensity, high-conflict areas expanded by approximately 1110 square kilometers between 1980 and 2020, predominantly concentrated in fertile agricultural regions such as the Weihe River Basin and urban core areas. Conversely, non-conflict zones decreased by 38.7%. In terms of ecological risk correlation, bivariate LISA cluster analysis revealed a significant spatial autocorrelation between severe land use conflicts and ecological risks (Moran’s I = 0.62, p < 0.01). High-risk clusters in areas transitioning from arable land to built-up land increased by 23% after 2000. Predictions based on the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model suggest that by 2030, high-intensity conflict areas will expand by an additional 16%, leading to intensified competition for land resources. Therefore, incorporating ecological safety thresholds into land spatial planning policies is essential for reconciling the conflicts between development and conservation, thereby promoting sustainable land use transitions.