Historical Drivers and Reduction Paths of CO2 Emissions in Jiangsu’s Cement Industry

With global climate challenges intensifying, the cement industry, as a major CO2 emitter, has attracted significant attention regarding its emission reduction potential and strategies. Advanced economies like the European Union use carbon pricing to spur innovation, while emerging countries focus on incremental solutions, such as fuel substitution. Combining LMDI decomposition and the LEAP model, this study examines Jiangsu Province as a test bed for China’s decarbonization strategy, a highly efficient region with carbon intensity 8% lower than the national average. Historical analysis identifies carbon intensity, energy mix, energy intensity, output scale, and economic effects as key drivers of emission changes. Specifically, the reduction in cement production, real estate contraction, lower housing construction, and reduced production capacity are the main factors curbing emissions. Under an integrated technology strategy—including energy efficiency, fuel and clinker substitution, and CCS—CO2 emissions from Jiangsu’s cement sector are projected to decrease to 17.28 million tons and 10.9 million tons by 2060 under high- and low-demand scenarios, respectively. Clinker substitution is the most significant CO2 reduction technology, contributing about 60%, while energy efficiency gains contribute only 3.4%. Despite the full deployment of existing reduction methods, Jiangsu’s cement industry is expected to face an emissions gap of approximately 10 million tons to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, highlighting the need for innovative emission reduction technologies or carbon trading to meet carbon neutrality goals.