Dynamics of the incidence and prevalence of autism spectrum disorders in childhood in Ukraine

Аim - is to analyze the dynamics of the incidence and prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) per 100,000 children in Ukraine in the period 2008-2020 and to forecast these indicators until 2025. Materials and methods. A retrospective analysis of the reporting data of the Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine in the period 2008-2017 and of the Institute of Forensic Psychiatry of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine in the period 2018-2020 was carried out. Incidence and prevalence rates per 100,000 child population (0-17 years) were calculated, and the availability of medical geneticists in Ukraine per 1 million population was determined. Calculations of prognostic indicators in 2025 have been carried out. Calculations were performed in the MedCalc® Statistical Software package (v.22.009). Results. In Ukraine, in the period 2008-2020, a reliable trend towards an increase in the prevalence of ASD almost 10 times from 13.82 per 100,000 to 146.03 per 100,000 and the incidence rate from 2.28 to 22.15 per 100,000 of the child population was revealed. A reliable increase in these indicators is predicted by 2025. The number of cases of ASD among urban residents is significantly higher than among urban residents (75.36% versus 24.64%). However, a significant increase in the proportion of ASD cases among rural residents is predicted in 2025. Regional features of the prevalence and morbidity indicators in Ukraine were revealed. The highest incidence rate was found in Kyiv (26.27 per 100,000) and the lowest - in Luhansk region (23.50 per 100,000). The existence of a negative reliable relationship between prevalence and morbidity indicators with the supply of genetic doctors per 1 million population, with the number of visits to them, with the share of primary patients examined and with the share of families registered for the first time was established. Conclusions. In Ukraine, a significant increase in the prevalence and incidence of ASD among the children's population is predicted until 2025, one of the reasons for this increase may be a decrease in access to medical and genetic counseling due to a decrease in the supply of genetic doctors. No conflict of interests was declared by the authors.