Dynamic Simulation for Carbon Emissions of the Entire Building Industry Chain Based on System Dynamics

Abstract The climate change issue caused by carbon emissions has attracted extensive attention. China has set the goal of reaching the carbon peak by 2030. The carbon emissions of buildings are an important part of China's total carbon emissions. Therefore, this research incorporates policy, population, and economic impacts into a system dynamics (SD) model to comprehensively simulate the carbon emission reduction effect of the entire building industry chain. The main sources of carbon emissions, key factors affecting carbon emission reduction effects, and the possibility of improvement are discussed. The SD model predicts carbon emissions from 2023 to 2035 and establishes three scenarios: coordinated development scenario, low-carbon development scenario, and comprehensive development scenario to evaluate the emission reduction potential. These scenarios indicate that by 2035, emissions will be reduced by 6.9% to 17.2% compared to the baseline. To curb emissions, this study suggests improving low-carbon awareness, optimizing the energy structure, promoting research and development investment, and controlling building area. This provides a solid foundation for formulating low-carbon development strategies. Keywords: Entire construction industry chain, Carbon emission, System dynamics, Scenario analysis, Carbon emission reduction path.