The Mathematical Underpinnings of Defensive Counterair Operations in Great Power Competition

In the context of the Great Power Competition, particularly with China's advancing long-range munitions capabilities, there is a critical need to adapt defensive counterair (DCA) operations planning. This paper addresses some challenges of the complex and time-consuming DCA planning processes, often resulting in suboptimal decisions. We explore the mathematical foundations of DCA operations and provide a closed-form solution that determines aircraft requirements based on desired operational distances and calculates required distances based on aircraft availability. This approach helps to enable the Agile Combat Employment (ACE) concept, offering increased flexibility in response to potential denial of access to predetermined locations. We demonstrate the applicability of our equations through a couple of notional examples and simulations, showing potential for more than 75%-time savings improvement for the calculations compared to current methods and improved mission effectiveness from improved aircraft allocation techniques. This potential increase in efficiency and effectiveness could improve the ability to adapt to changing strategic environments, supporting the ACE framework's goals of increased survivability and operational flexibility in contested spaces.