Quantitative evaluation and modelling of uncertainty factors impacting duration of building renovation projects

Purpose Construction renovation projects have been noted to suffer from uncertainties. While recent efforts have studied uncertainties affecting the duration of other types of projects, these efforts have overlooked construction renovation projects. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the uncertainty factors affecting the duration of construction renovation projects. Design/methodology/approach In total, 226 responses from construction professionals were collected via a questionnaire survey on the impact of uncertainty factors on the duration of construction renovation projects. The subjective responses of experts from the industry were categorised using principal component analysis (PCA) before being exposed to objective analysis, assessment and modelling using a soft computing technique called fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE). Findings In total, 25 uncertainty factors were grouped as critical factors and were modelled. The PCA of the 25 critical uncertainty factors produced an 8-factor solution that grouped the uncertainty factors into 8 categories. The FSE modelling indicated that all eight groups are critical, but with varying levels of criticality on the duration of construction renovation projects. Research limitations/implications The study provides a basis for a cost-effective uncertainty management guideline to avoid time overruns in construction projects. It also offers a platform for choosing among renovation projects to decide whether or not a project will overrun its time or not. Originality/value The study identified and established critical uncertainties affecting the duration of construction renovation projects, thus providing the first empirical multi-attribute objective uncertainty evaluation for the duration of construction renovation projects.