Research on the Effect and Path of CBAM on Green Technology Innovation in China’s High-Carbon Manufacturing Industries

To cope with global warming, the European Union will implement the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026. CBAM may seriously affect the export of China’s high-carbon manufacturing products. To illustrate this issue, this paper uses DID for analysis, taking CBAM as a shock policy. To further explore the impact pathway, this article utilizes a high-dimensional fixed-effect model for mechanism analysis. The results are as follows: (1) CBAM stimulates the vitality of green technology innovation in the high-carbon manufacturing industry; (2) public environmental concern has a positive moderating effect on green technology innovation; (3) financial support plays a mediating role; (4) green technology innovations are more likely to be influenced by CBAM in the eastern region, the petrochemical, and nonferrous industries. Based on research findings, suggestions are as follows: (1) promote green technology innovation in high-carbon industries; (2) increase financial support for green technology innovation in high-carbon enterprises; (3) guide the public towards green and low-carbon consumption; (4) strengthen policy support for low-carbon development in the central and western regions.